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2017年人力资源趋势11大预测-德勤

《职业经理人周刊》

德勤咨询

2017人力资源趋势11大趋势分析

Predictions for 2017: Everything is Becoming Digital


  • 本文来自德勤咨询发布的《2017年人力资源趋势11大预测》(Predictions for 2017: Everything is Becoming Digital)研究报告;

  • 由cici编辑,图片来自报告;本文旨在分享,如有问题,请第一时间联系我们。


A Note from the Analyst

As I look back over the last year and think about the year ahead, I am struck by how many things are changing this year. As I developed this report, I realized there is one theme that brings it all together: digital.

I do not need to explain how technology has infiltrated our lives. We are now constantly connected; we send and receive messages 24 hours a day; and we can view news, video, podcasts, and live streams of information from any device in a coffee shop, standing in line, or even in an airplane. Video, a medium which used to seem expensive and slow, is now becoming the primary form of content on the Internet (and live video is coming fast).

The devices we carry around (which are far more than “smartphones” today) are not only computers and phones—they carry digital sensors which make them smarter and more useful than ever. (The typical smartphone has a GPS, temperature sensor, audio sensor, humidity detector, accelerometer, proximity sensor, camera(s), and some even have altimeters. Soon these devices will listen to our voices for stress, monitor our heartbeats, and possibly even our diets!)

Artificial intelligence (I like to call it “augmented intelligence”) has now become a mainstream technology. Our phones and computers can understand our voice, respond to commands, recommend and solve problems, and, through robotics, automate many jobs we never before thought possible. Oxford University believes 47 percent of today’s jobs will be redefined within 20 years and this does not seem unreasonable at all.

But, while technology is changing jobs and work (I talk about the “future of work” later in this report), the biggest change we see is that new way we manage, lead, and operate our companies. Organizations that thrive in the digital age just act differently, so all of the trends I discuss revolve around learning to “be digital,” not just “do digital.”

What does this mean? Earlier this year, we conducted a study with MIT2 (more than 1,000 business leaders responded) and we found two important things. First, 90 percent of these companies believe their core business is threatened by new digital competitors that are challenging their products and services. Second, 70 percent believe that they do not have the right leadership, skills, or operating models to adapt.

Our Deloitte Human Capital Trends study3, which surveyed more than 7,000 companies in 130 countries, found that 92 percent of companies believe that they are not organized correctly to succeed, while only 14 percent know what this “new organization” looks like. As we describe in that report, the world is moving from a top-down hierarchical model to one of a “network of teams” in which people are iterating and solving problems in a dynamic, agile way. This shift in structure, roles, and careers changes the way we lead, manage, reward, and move people throughout the company. It also pushes us to continuously learn—faster than ever.

In fact, one of the hallmarks of high-performing companies in today’s digital world is the ability to learn fast. Companies today should try new things (often through crowdsourcing4 or hackathons), rapidly deploy new products and services (through the MVP5 or minimally viable product approach), and quickly learn what fails and what works. This fast-moving, customer-centric way of doing business has shifted decision-making to the edges of the company, and involves a new way of thinking about management and HR.

The bottom line to all of our predictions for 2017 is this—technology has not only changed our lives, it has changed our organizations. Let us now dive in to the 11 predictions we see.

Josh Bersin

Principal and Founder

Bersin by Deloitte

预测1:组织设计的挑战无处不在

Organizational Design Will Be Challenged Everywhere

100多年来,公司的创建意在扩大能效。我们为了运行产品设计、工程、制造、销售、市场营销和财务而设置了各种只能部门。如今,在瞬息万变的市场和数字产品和服务的世界里,传统概念上的“规模”和“效率”已不再适用。

2017年,组织设计依然面临各方面的挑战,具体包括:

• 正式创建小型团队结构; • 从根本上减少工作层级,激励员工努力获取工作成果和不断学习,而不只是追求晋升和不断换工作; • 改变奖励机制奖励团队成功,而不仅仅是奖励个人成功; • 重新设计目标管理,每季度更新调整目标,而不是每年进行调整一次,使目标能够公开、透明地在团队中分享; • 提拔年轻的专业人士进阶领导层,这样他们就能迅速为团队的成功做出贡献; • 教会管理者去管理“项目”而不是管理“人”; • 提为员工提供“职业教练”和“导师”,而不是让“经理”来促进员工成长; • 创造终身学习、探索和讨论的文化,来促进员工创新; • 赞助黑客马拉松及其他协同发展计划,让各级层级人员共同贡献自己的创意; • 实施实时信息管理系统,以便让所有的团队成员都能够受到同一目标的指引。

【KEY POINT】We should break our functional groups into teams—teams that are smaller, flatter, and more empowered—and leaders should focus on hands-on leadership, not leadership from behind a desk.

Figure 1: Network of Teams

Case in Point:

Organization Restructure

One large IT department found that its current functional structure (e.g., application design, infrastructure, security, client service, etc.) had created silos of people who could not be shared among projects. Managers were “hoarding” their teams—and preventing people from being promoted or moved, primarily to protect their positions. Also, leaders considered their jobs sacrosanct because they had “paid their dues,” so to speak, and would not move into new roles.

The CIO, who was facing dozens of new projects that cut across functional teams, totally redesigned the function. Hundreds of people were promoted into team leadership roles; many vice presidents were demoted to team leadership roles; and many technical experts suddenly had teams built around them.

While the redesign was challenging, within only a few months many of the younger, more ambitious leaders rose to the occasion; several of the senior vice presidents resigned; and the CIO found the organization was more engaged, excited, and productive than ever. He realized that no spans-and-layers project would ever have solved this problem—and now is excited to see an agile, “digital” organization emerge, one with more leaders, more empowerment, and much faster time to market.

预测2:文化和敬业度仍为顶级优先考虑事项

{分页}Culture and Engagement Will Remain Top Priorities.

2017年,文化建设与员工敬业度仍是全世界业务管理者和人力资源管理者最关心的事情。到底什么是组织文化?简单来说,就是在无人监督的情况下组织自发产生的隐性行为模式及激励系统。另外,文化也将定义你的组织。

【KEY POINT】 Study after study have shown that companies with a strong sense of purpose and a clearly defined set of cultural values outperform their peers.

Figure 2: Growth in the Importance of Workplace Culture

Figure 3: Bersin by Deloitte Simply Irresistible™ Model

Figure 4: Engagement Is Critical to Success

Figure 5: Feedback Tools

Figure 6: How Well Companies Are Adapting to the Multigenerational Workforce*

{分页}预测3:实时反馈和分析将井喷

Real-Time Feedback and Analytics Will Explode in Maturity

第三点预测是基于企业文化建设和敬业度管理的推动而提出的。实时反馈与数据分析能够提高敬业度,因此反馈工具市场将迎来爆发。

2016年这个市场的规模将超过3亿美元,预计2017年规模将翻一番。实时反馈让衡量和管理员工敬业度成为可能。2017年,将员工体验的整体策略自动化、追踪把握员工的职场生命周期系统化,并且发展如“反馈体系”这样的技术对于企业来说至关重要。

【KEY POINT】 2017 is the time for you to build a plan and roadmap for feedback systems (and tools) throughout your employee lifecycle.

Figure 7: Enterprise Feedback Architecture

Figure 8: People Analytics Maturity Grows

预测4:新一代的绩效管理工具将涌现

A New Generation of Performance Management Tools Will Emerge

当下,创新的力量驱动诸多绩效管理软件供应商优化其绩效管理工具。

过去的15年,企业从一个自上而下、用流程驱动员工绩效管理、年度绩效考核的模式转变为灵活持续、以反馈为基础的模式。这种变革仍处在初级阶段,当越来越多的企业开始实施常规性的记录、OKR管理、敏捷的目标管理,持续的培训辅导项目,以及项目经理等模式的不断涌现,相信未来会呈现不一样的景色。

【PREDICTION】The revolution in performance management practices (moving from an annual to continuous model) is finally being supported by a new breed of performance management software vendors.

Figure 9: The Evolution of Management Thinking

Figure 10: Performance Management—Then andNow

Figure 11: The New World of Performance Management

预测5:“人力效能”和健康福利将成为人力资源管理的重要议题

A Focus on “Human Performance” and Wellbeing Will Become a Critical Part of HR, Talent, and Leadership.

很多方面上,人力效能都已成为工作中的一个热门议题。员工是否健康?他们是否有良好的习惯保持精力充沛?他们是否在工作中可以全神贯注或者是管理者能够帮助他们投入地工作?当然,员工能否具备技能,得到支持、培训、辅导从而更好地完成工作?

【PREDICTION】A focus on employee wellbeing, productivity, and health will become an integral part of HR’s mission in 2017.

Figure 12: U.S. Productivity 2006 through 2016

Figure 13: Working More Hours—The Vacation Crisis 27

Figure 14: From Wellness to Wellbeing to Performance

预测6:人力资源将专注员工体验将而非过程设计

Focus on Employee Experience Will Overcome Process Design in HR

许多人力资源部门已经开始重新定义自己。有些称自己为“人力运营部”,另一些称自己为“人才与文化”之类的部门。这些信息并不是要找到一个方式使人力资源部门更具战略意义,而是要真正改变对人力资源组织的认知。

2017年,设计思维、用户体验设计、数字app将开始成为人力资源领域的主要趋势。当公司重新设计他们的建筑、福利计划、休假制度和其他多元项目的时候,他们并不见得关注着每位雇员的体验。

【PREDICTION】 The concept of “total employee experience,” focused on design thinking and the simplification of work, will become a major focus in HR.

Case in Point:

Design Employee Experiences

The Deloitte University Center for Leadership (DU) is a beautiful building in Texas where Deloitte consultants and leaders go for education, training, networking, and a variety of client events. When it was designed, it took years to discuss the investment, and the team decided to build “not a corporate university,” but a real “learning and collaboration experience.”

While I was not at Deloitte at the time, a huge amount of storytelling exists about how the invitations were designed, how the drivers pick up attendees at the airport, how attendees are greeted upon arrival, and how every room, meal, and facility contributes to the experience. All the rooms are the same size, for example, to give everyone the “experience” of peer to peer and openness. Free coffee and snacks are located everywhere you go inside this building, to encourage people to slow down and talk with each other. The learning rooms are highly configurable, so you can sit, stand, or move around at ease. Throughout the attendee’s experience at DU, the “hospitality” crew takes time to treat you like you a senior leader, even if you might be a first-year consultant.

This was done deliberately by studying the entire “experience” of learning and collaboration at Deloitte. While many of the ultimate elements may seem simple when I explain them, they all fit together into an integrated, high-value experience designed to excite, engage, and inspire people at Deloitte. This is an example of “experience design,” not “process design.”

{分页}测7:数字化人力资源和学习将助力革新学习与发展及HR系统

Digital HR and Learning Will Help Us to Reinvent L&D and HR Systems

在过去五年,公司在一体化、云端、核心的HR系统上投入了大量资金。然而Cedar Crestone的研究显示,尽管投入巨大,员工仍然对他们的HR系统和解决方案不满意。解决方案就在眼前。人力资源组织现在必须学习“如何数字化”,而不仅仅是“购买数字化产品”。

人力资源(和学习发展)的数字化解决方案意味着很多事情:

• 让新程序快速上线,在时间中迭代改进;

• 采纳数字工具和设计。

【PREDICTION】 Digital HR is here to stay. We, in HR, have to “do digital,” as well as “be digital,” in everything we do.

Digital solutions in HR (and learning) mean several things. • Hackathons and MVP (minimal viable products) work to get new apps and programs out the door quickly, with iterative improvement over time. Rather than do a two- to three-year implementation of a major new HR system, we have to add new apps and solutions much more quickly.

• Adoption of digital tools and design. We need to become very good at building digital apps, creating well-designed user experiences, and using the tips and techniques of gamification, behavioral economics (nudges), and analytics in HR. Rather than telling people to “travel less,” we might want to give them a nudge application that compares their travel to others and incents them to slow down.

• Increasing transparency. Whether we like it or not, everything in HR has become transparent. People now know who is being promoted; they probably know their salary versus external benchmarks; and they know your company’s brand attributes on the outside market. Rather than fight or hide things from employees, we have to think “what if we share this and let people comment and rate things” instead.

• Standardizing platforms. In many ways, HR itself is a “platform”—we provide services, tools, information, and data to managers and employees all day. We have to think about ourselves as a team of centers of excellence (or a network of excellence) built on one standard HR Platform, with real-time data for all. One of our large clients in India, for example, implemented SAP in a unique way to build real-time dashboards for hiring speed, time to proficiency, turnover metrics, and engagement metrics in all 1,000-plus of its regional business offices. Everyone can see everything, so management decisions happen fast.

• Bringing heterogeneous platform experiences together. No matter how hard you try, it is nearly impossible to standardize on one technology vendor for all of your HR services. Our latest research actually found that the average company has seven different “systems of record,” and that problem is never likely to go away. The idea of an HR portal has been around for decades, but today with mobile needs and dynamic workers, we need a better solution. An effective option is to build an integrated employee experience platform, one built on apps and an integrated backend. Our case study on Commonwealth Bank of Australia31 describes how they did this; new products like Deloitte ConnectMe32 integrate employee transaction needs, services, and personalization in one integrated system.

• Moving HR teams around. Just as a business would provide job rotation, experiential learning, and exposure to new leaders, we should do the same in HR. Digital business means always being able to “pivot”—move people into new jobs—and that often means into and out of HR. HR business partners should have business rotations and business leaders should rotate into HR as well.

• Data-driven everything. Analytics is no longer a “good idea” for HR—it is now mandatory. Effective digital HR means you have good data; you have an analytics team; your systems are integrated and cleaned up; and you can find accurate information quickly. Without this data “platform,” you will likely fall behind the rest of the business and decisions may be made too slowly.

预测8:领导力发展需要持续不断地创新与提升

The Leadership Market Will Start a Steady Process of Reinvention

人力资源部门最重要的任务之一是确保组织拥有强大并配合一致的领导力梯队应对未来挑战。每年,领导力发展对于HR 来说都是一个挑战,且是一项优先级较高的工作。传统的领导力策略已经过时,无法适应最新的商业发展需要,很多传统的领导力模型需要被更新。

{分页}【PREDICTION】Leadership development continues to be a challenge year after year. In 2017, a focus on “digital leadership” and rethinking the leadership pipeline will be critical to addressing this perennial problem.

Figure 15:The Leadership Maturity Model

【KEY POINT】 We should push young people into leadership roles, give them the support they need, and coach them so they can grow and improve.

预测9 :多样性、包容性和无意识偏见将成为头等大事

Diversity, Inclusion, and Unconscious Bias Will Become a Top Priority

十多年来,HR 们已经高度重视多样性问题,并将此议题列入“日程表”。多样性问题曾经被视为一项合规项目,如今已经成为一项组织战略。在2017年,HR 组织需要将这个问题视为头等大事,并且确保你的组织正在获取正确的信息,正式地分享它,并开发一个全面的包容性与多样性项目,以便其覆盖组织所有的人才管理实践项目。

Figure 16:The Talent Management Maturity Model

【PREDICTION】Diversity, inclusion, and the removal of unconscious bias will become CEO-level issues in 2017. New tools are making this problem easier to diagnose and address.

预测10:学习与发展将不断改进

The L&D Function Will Continue to Struggle

十多年来,HR 们已经高度重视多样性问题,并将此议题列入“日程表”。多样性问题曾经被视为一项合规项目,如今已经成为一项组织战略。在2017年,HR 组织需要将这个问题视为头等大事,并且确保你的组织正在获取正确的信息,正式地分享它,并开发一个全面的包容性与多样性项目,以便其覆盖组织所有的人才管理实践项目。

Figure 17: Rapid Evolution of Corporate Learning

【PREDICTION】The corporate L&D market is undergoing one of its most disruptive times in the last 15 years.

Figure 18: The Learning Organization Maturity Mode

Case in Point:

The New World of Learning Experiences

One of the leading examples of this is a company we have been working with for years, AT&T. It operates in one of the most competitive and disruptive markets in the world—and its employees and engineers must constantly be learning.

The company has built an “always-on” learning model that encourages (and forces) everyone to develop themselves on a continuous basis. Leaders are coached and rewarded for the learning of their teams, and the learning environment is digital and consumer-like.

预测11:工作的未来已来,HR的变革箭在弦上

The Future of Work Is Here and HR Is in the Hot Seat

组织在2017年面临的基本问题就是人工智能技术(语音识别,自然语言处理,传感器和机器人技术)的快速商品化及其对工作方方面面产生重要影响。未来的工作将更加“人性化”——重新设计工作和组织,从而使得组织比以往更加重视“以人为本”。

【PREDICTION】AI, robotics, and cognitive systems are augmenting and changing jobs, professions, and careers. HR needs to learn about the future of work and help to redesign the organization faster than ever.

I was recently asked to research this topic, and develop a point of view and speech which you can read about here.53 The essential issue we face in 2017 is the rapid commoditization of AI technology (speech recognition, natural language processing, sensors, and robotics) and the impact that could have on almost every job.

• Healthcare workers and X-ray technicians are now aided by smart software that can help to diagnose disease, read X-rays, and recommend drugs with high degrees of accuracy.

• Manufacturing plants are rapidly installing robots (China is purchasing more than 260,000 robots this year, and is likely to become the number one market for robotics55) and these robots can see better than the human eye.

• Most mobile phones have more than six smart sensors (e.g., audio, GPS, accelerometer, temperature, camera, humidity), and are now able to listen to our voice and identify stress. In fact, new research by Stanford56 shows that voice recognition is three times more accurate at typing than our hands.

• New software which integrates mobility, drone sensors, and weather patterns is revolutionizing farming and farm machines,57 the way we decide which road to take, and how insurance is priced. Insurance companies now have tools that can scan photos of your accident and almost immediately size your claim.

These new tools are becoming commonplace; they are entering the workforce at a time when jobs themselves are becoming more dynamic, more than 40 percent of workers are contingent,59 and the gap between the “haves” and “have-nots” has increased. So we, as HR leaders, are in the hot seat to figure out what all of this means.

If you read the article I mentioned above, you will see that the future of work is not simply about using technology to replace people. The real “future of work” issue is all about making jobs “more human”—redesigning jobs, redesigning work, and redesigning organizations so that the “people side” of work has even more importance and focus than ever.

关于作者

Bersin by Deloitte delivers research-based people strategies designed to help leaders and their organizations deliver exceptional business performance. Bersin by Deloitte membership gives Fortune 1000 and Forbes Global 2000 HR professionals the information, action-focused tools, and performance support materials they need to prioritize, design, and implement leading practice solutions, as well as benchmark against others, develop their staff, and select and implement systems. A piece of Bersin by Deloitte research is downloaded on average approximately every minute during the business day. More than 5,000 organizations worldwide use our research and consulting to guide their HR, talent, and learning strategies.

Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

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